Trump & Harris: Electoral “Civil War” in the U.S.

Donald Trump’s Strategy

Trump is focusing on white suburban and small-town Americans experiencing industrial resentment—especially conservative groups inclined toward foreign policy isolationism, economic protectionism, frustration, and conspiracy thinking. This demographic largely consists of religious voters who oppose immigration, abortion rights, gender equality, and LGBTQ+ rights.

According to Politico, Trump’s 2016 victory was a form of “rural voter revenge” against the establishment, embodied in his slogan “Drain the Washington Swamp.”

The core of Trump’s campaign is the economy and immigration, emphasizing his first-term economic successes. Unlike 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s presidency scared voters into considering a move to Canada, Trump now needs to focus on swing states.

A key tactic is attacking Kamala Harris to amplify fears about her potential presidency. Trump has targeted her race, intellect, and laughter. His campaign wants Harris’s rising poll numbers to keep his base energized—ensuring they don’t assume victory is already secured. He portrays her as weak and ineffective, highlighting her failed 2020 presidential bid. On Truth Social, Trump has called her “Crooked Kamala,” “dumb,” with a “low IQ” and lacking “mental capacity.” However, attacking Harris is different from attacking Clinton, who already had high unfavorability ratings. Harris, in contrast, is still in a “honeymoon phase” with parts of the electorate.

Challenges for Trump’s Campaign

1. Losing Control of the Narrative Post-Assassination Attempt
   After the attempt on his life, the campaign lost its dominant position in the media cycle, shifting the race toward Harris. Trump is now trying to regain momentum through provocative statements to dominate social media discussions.

2. Cultural Wars Limit Electoral Expansion
   Trump initially attempted a unifying message with “Unite America!” but quickly reverted to his usual aggressive style after Harris’s rise. Democrats benefit from Trump appearing extreme and divisive rather than moderate and electable.

3. Reaching an Electoral Ceiling
   The assassination attempt expanded Trump’s base, but his current level of support may be a ceiling—enough to beat Biden, but not necessarily Harris. He must attract independent voters, disillusioned Republicans (such as Haley’s supporters), and those disengaged from the election.
   

Risks for Trump’s Campaign

1. Turnout of His Core Base
   Trump needs overwhelming support from white voters, estimated at a minimum of 58%, but he faces a “white ceiling.” In 2020, he lost by 7 million votes compared to 2016. His best strategy is to maximize turnout, as he won in 2016 because his voters showed up while Clinton’s did not. The 2016 turnout was 55.7%. Since presidential elections are often referendums on the incumbent, Trump must tightly link Harris to Biden’s unpopular legacy, while Harris must distance herself from it.

2. Mail-In Voting
   A significant portion of U.S. voters cast their ballots by mail, a method historically favoring Democrats. This remains a structural disadvantage for Trump.

3. Trump’s Own Gaffes
   His unpredictable personality remains a liability. In an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists, he stated about Harris: “I didn’t know she was Black until a few years ago when she decided to be Black.” At a conservative Christian gathering, he claimed they wouldn’t need to vote again in four years—comments his opponents framed as authoritarian.
   

Kamala Harris’s Strategy

Harris’s core message is that she is the “safe choice”—moderate, respectable, and responsible. Her team is crafting an image of her as a top-tier businesswoman, reflected in her sharp professional attire.

Her campaign is targeting four key groups:

• African Americans (racial identity)
• Latinos (her father’s Jamaican heritage)
• Women (championing abortion rights)
• Young voters (TikTok presence, social media memes, energetic public appearances)

So far, Harris is gaining traction with these demographics, especially among minority voters. However, this could limit her ability to expand support among white voters more focused on economic concerns.

Another crucial voter bloc for Harris is the “double haters”—those who dislike both Biden and Trump. With Harris entering the race, they now have an alternative.

Democrats’ Campaign Focus: Values

The central Democratic message is that Trump’s return would threaten democracy and personal freedoms. Harris’s slogan could be framed as: “I represent America more than Trump does.” Geographically, she will prioritize the “Blue Wall” states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania). She needs a campaign centered on values, similar to the themes explored in the recent movie Civil War, which imagines a new American conflict.

Democrats also hope Harris’s choice of running mate will have a multiplier effect. Ideally, her VP pick should be a moderate, white, and traditionally masculine figure to reassure swing voters hesitant about electing a nonwhite woman.

Challenges for Harris’s Campaign

1. Unclear Electoral Image
   Harris is broadly electable and motivated to prove she is not weak or mediocre (a perception even some Democrats once had). However, she has little time to define her economic vision—will she manage inflation the same way as Biden?

2. Winning White Working-Class Voters
   Can Harris appeal to working-class whites and union members in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as Biden did? She lacks an economic-centric profile, and abortion rights advocacy alone may not be enough to win this group.

3. Gender Bias in Presidential Elections
   The U.S. has never had a female president. Republicans may exploit the idea that Harris advanced due to race and gender rather than competence. Trump could counter by emphasizing how women fared better economically under his presidency. The key question: will white women support Harris? In 2016, polls showed they preferred Trump over Clinton.
   

Risks for Harris’s Campaign

1. Becoming a Replica of Obama’s Campaign
   If Harris relies too heavily on racial and progressive left voters, she risks mirroring Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns. However, Obama won in a post-9/11 landscape when Americans sought internal stability and a less aggressive foreign policy. Today’s climate is different—under Biden, the U.S. has retreated globally (Afghanistan withdrawal, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran’s direct attacks on Israel). There is a demand for a stronger, more imperial America, a narrative that aligns more with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” than Harris.

2. Escaping Biden’s Shadow
   Harris must distance herself from Biden’s failures. Trump will brand her the “Border Czar” due to her early role in Biden’s immigration policy. To counter this, Harris may push her own initiatives—such as early childhood education and elderly care—to establish independence. At the same time, she must claim Biden’s key successes, such as reducing child poverty by 20% through tax credits, investments in renewable energy, and infrastructure projects.
   

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a Spoiler
Kennedy is siphoning off blue-collar, union votes, particularly in the industrial Midwest—a critical battleground for Harris.