Romania Elects a President and Parliament

This month marks another crucial election campaign for Ukrainians—this time in neighboring Romania. Presidential elections will be held on November 24, followed by parliamentary elections on December 1.

The ten-year era of center-right President Klaus Iohannis, an ethnic German, former physics teacher, and three-time mayor of the provincial city of Sibiu, is coming to an end. Interestingly, back in 2014, the Romanian diaspora played a decisive role in his election—just as it recently did in the re-election of Moldovan President Maia Sandu. In classic black PR traditions, Iohannis faced accusations of selling children for organ trafficking and misusing state funds for personal gain. However, these claims did not prevent his victory.

Why should this matter to us? Stereotypes about Romania as the “land of Dracula and gypsy camps,” the poorest and most corrupt country in the EU, hardly reflect the true importance of Romania for Ukraine.

Today, Romania is not just a key ally of Ukraine. It serves as a stable military cooperation hub between Ukraine and the West and a critical trade and economic gateway that helped cushion Ukraine’s economy after the Polish border blockade. Romania is also home to NATO’s largest base in Europe.

The parliamentary elections are even more significant, as Romania is a parliamentary-presidential republic. To enter parliament, parties or electoral blocs must surpass a 5% nationwide threshold or secure 20% of the vote in four multi-member constituencies.

The main competition is between the two leading parties—the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL)—which have a long-standing rivalry. Since 2021, the Social Democrats have been in a coalition with the National Liberals, with the prime minister’s position rotating between representatives of both parties.

The Social Democrats are running a costly campaign, spending 37 million lei, compared to just 4.2 million lei by the National Liberals. Polls show PSD leading with 30-32%, while PNL has around 20%.

A “third force” in this election is the Save Romania Union (USR), polling at 12-15%. USR serves as the foundation of the United Right Alliance, which has a highly popular political platform, including modern industrialization, support for small farmers, education reform, and allocating 6% of GDP to healthcare.

Russia is backing two political forces: the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and the SOS Party. AUR is led by George Simion, while SOS is headed by controversial MEP Diana Șoșoacă, known for her anti-Ukrainian stunts. AUR is polling at 15-18% and is expected to have a fairly strong parliamentary faction, while SOS is around 7%.

National minority parties also play an active role in Romania’s political landscape, such as the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), which traditionally secures a stable 5% share of the vote.

At the start of autumn, the presidential campaign was seen as a battle between three key figures:

• Mircea Geoană – former NATO Deputy Secretary-General, whose ratings surged in September.
• Nicolae Ciucă – a retired general, former Romanian prime minister, and the National Liberals’ candidate.
• Marcel Ciolacu – the current prime minister and Social Democrat leader.

According to the latest poll (Biroul de Cercetări Sociale, November 7-10), Marcel Ciolacu leads with 27.1%, followed by Nicolae Ciucă with 17.7%.

Ciolacu’s main challenge is Romania’s economic situation and citizens’ financial well-being. Meanwhile, Ciucă is perceived as a proponent of “strong hand” governance and authoritarian methods. During his tenure as prime minister, Romania was seen as backsliding in terms of democracy and freedom of speech.

In third place is the pro-Russian candidate George Simion, leader of AUR. He previously spearheaded the “Bring Bessarabia Home” campaign and was banned from entering Moldova due to his role in destabilization efforts. Ukrainian intelligence services confirmed that Simion had previously met with an FSB agent in Ukraine’s Chernivtsi. Currently polling at 12%, his ratings have steadily increased throughout the campaign. Some surveys even place him in second place, meaning he has a realistic shot at making it to the runoff against Ciolacu.

In fourth place is former TV host Elena Lasconi, leader of the Save Romania Union (USR), with 14.3%.

Once considered a frontrunner, Mircea Geoană has now plummeted to 7.6%. He became the target of a highly effective “negative campaigning” strategy by nearly all other candidates. Here’s a case where the Ukrainian proverb “Гуртом і батька краще бити” (Together, even beating a father is easier) comes to mind. Geoană, a former Social Democrat, shares a similar voter base with Ciolacu. Moreover, he previously lost the 2009 presidential election in the second round to Traian Băsescu.

Interestingly, among the candidates is Ludovic Orban—not Viktor Orban, but the former Romanian prime minister and leader of the Forța Dreptei (“Force of the Right”) party. Meanwhile, Diana Șoșoacă was disqualified from running, prompting her to accuse Americans, Jews, and the EU of planning to rig the elections. Every country has its own “resident lunatics.” Șoșoacă frequently engineers political scandals, such as accusing Ukraine in the European Parliament of allegedly “discriminating” against Romania’s ethnic minority. In 2023, she even proposed a bill to annul the Romania-Ukraine good-neighbor treaty and called for the annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Bukovina, Budjak, Maramureș, and Zmiynyy Island.

For Ukraine, the election results are unlikely to pose significant risks. Both the Social Democrats and National Liberals are pro-European and supportive of Ukraine. While AUR’s strong performance could cause some friction if the two-party coalition fractures, it is unlikely to create a major crisis for Ukraine.