The Remake of Georgia’s New Revolution is Incapable of Overthrowing the Current Power Structure

Yes, this scenario would be desirable for us, Ukrainians, who would like to see the opening of a second front in the fight against Russia, the liberation of Saakashvili as Putin’s personal enemy, and the de-occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

First, the current oligarchic and covertly pro-Russian government of Georgia has total control over the bureaucracy, courts, and law enforcement agencies. They have learned from the mistakes of Shevardnadze, whose regime was relatively easily overthrown in 2003 as a result of the Rose Revolution.

Second, at this stage, the tension resembles more of a warming-up of the opposition movement, which, in theory, could spiral into a climax— the overthrow of the regime. However, the authorities are not standing still either.

President Salome Zourabichvili, who has limited powers (as Georgia is a parliamentary-presidential republic), is skillfully maneuvering in an attempt to diffuse the protest wave. However, her veto on the law on transparency of foreign influence can be overridden, as has happened with other controversial initiatives.

Third, for a long time, the European Union has been cautiously commenting on events in Georgia, trying to prevent the country from fully sliding into Russia’s orbit. However, this strategy has not met expectations, and only now is the topic of Saakashvili’s release, democratic violations, and other issues being actively pushed.

The pressure from European institutions on Tbilisi is unlikely to significantly alter the current government’s course, but it will force opposition groups—who have repeatedly suffered electoral defeats—to unite under the European banner.

What is the secret behind the prolonged rule of “Georgian Dream”? It’s simple: the majority of Georgians embraced the idea of quiet and peaceful stabilization, a rejection of territorial revanchism and national vindication, and a guarantee of security. “Just not to have a war” – this is precisely what ordinary and simple people wanted to hear.

And the situation in Ukraine is currently being framed on pro-government Georgian media as: “Look at what would have happened in Georgia if moderate (but in reality, Russian-affiliated) political forces had not come to power and saved the country from a terrible war.”