Yerevan on Moscow’s Leash: Armenia’s “Reorientation” Toward the West Is Impossible

On October 1, in the Armenian capital, which supposedly pursues a policy of “reorientation” toward the West, a meeting of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)—Moscow’s counterpart to the EU—was held. To attend the meeting, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Yerevan, where he was personally received by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Just two weeks earlier, on September 14, amid reports of a supposed “serious deterioration” in relations with Russia, it was revealed that Russian military supplies to Armenia had resumed—completely contradicting Yerevan’s pro-Western rhetoric. Reports indicate that Moscow has delivered a large quantity of “Smerch” multiple rocket launch system missiles to Yerevan.

Armenia’s so-called “Western reorientation” is not even a geopolitical balancing act—it is a blatant deception. Armenia simply cannot turn away from Russia because its economy, energy sector, food security, and transportation infrastructure are entirely dependent on the Kremlin. On September 18, Pashinyan himself admitted that Armenia does not intend to completely sever ties with Russia.

Critical Infrastructure in the Kremlin’s Hands

The Russian state-owned company Gazprom is Armenia’s sole supplier of natural gas. Its subsidiary, Gazprom Armenia, owns the country’s entire gas distribution infrastructure. Due to Armenia’s membership in the EAEU, gas from Russia is supplied at a preferential rate of $165 per 1,000 cubic meters. Should ties be severed, the price of Russian gas for Yerevan would skyrocket nearly threefold to $400, making it impossible for the Armenian government to meet its basic energy needs. The esteemed American think tank Carnegie has commented on this: “Moscow has numerous ways to influence life in Armenia… Russia supplies more than 90% of Armenia’s natural gas and owns the country’s pipeline infrastructure.”

In resource-poor Armenia, domestic sources provide only 30–35% of the country’s energy needs. Electricity production mainly relies on nuclear and hydroelectric power, but even these sectors are fully dependent on Moscow:

• The Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, located in Metsamor, generates over 30% of the country’s electricity. Its operation and maintenance are handled by the Russian state corporation Rosatom. In December of last year, Moscow and Yerevan even agreed on “implementing measures to extend” their joint use of the plant. Moreover, the nuclear fuel—uranium—is also imported from Russia.
• The Sevan–Hrazdan Cascade, Armenia’s largest hydroelectric complex, consists of eight hydroelectric power stations with a total installed capacity of 561.4 MW. Since 2003, these power stations have been owned by International Energy Corporation (CJSC), which belongs to the Russian business group Tashir.

Thus, Armenia’s entire energy security is in the hands of the Kremlin. In December 2023, the British Institute for War & Peace Reporting warned: “Armenia’s strained relations with Russia, its traditional strategic ally, could have repercussions beyond politics and defense, impacting the country’s energy security.”

Food Security and Transportation

Armenia’s food security is another sector under total Russian control. In recent years, Armenia has consistently imported its entire grain supply from Russia. In 2023, 99.9% of Armenia’s wheat, flour, and corn imports came from Russia. Additionally, Armenia’s State Revenue Committee reports that 98% of imported vegetable oil also originates from Russia.

The only railway company in Armenia, South Caucasus Railway, which handles all intercity, suburban, and freight transportation in the country, is Russian-owned. This company is a subsidiary of Russian Railways (OAO “RZD”). Under an agreement signed in 2008, Armenia’s entire railway network, including all movable and immovable assets, is under Russian ownership.

Russia: The Backbone of Armenia’s Economy

Since gaining independence in 1990, Russia has been Armenia’s primary and largest trading partner. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave their economic ties a new boost. In 2022, bilateral trade increased by 77%, reaching a record $4.1 billion. This trend continued in 2023, with an additional 43% increase, totaling $7.3 billion. On September 13, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that this year, trade between the two countries could reach an unprecedented $16 billion. “The bottom line is that after invading Ukraine, Russia has significantly strengthened its economic presence in Armenia… This growing dependence on Russia could severely limit Armenia’s ability to maneuver politically,” reported the news agency Eurasianet.

Western Assessment

Given all the levers of influence Russia holds, Yerevan’s foreign policy shift is nothing more than a staged political act. Despite Pashinyan’s government falsely projecting “distancing” from Russia, authoritative international media and organizations have repeatedly emphasized the impossibility of Armenia’s reorientation.

• March 14, 2023 – The Economist placed Armenia second on its list of countries most dependent on Russia in terms of politics, defense, and economics.
• May 9, 2023 – The German news site Intelli News stated: “Armenia is too far from Europe to realistically aspire to EU membership and too dependent on Russia for goods, energy, and security. Pashinyan appears to have no choice.”
• January 10, 2024 – The American think tank Jamestown Foundation noted: “Deep dependence creates obstacles for Yerevan in its efforts to free itself from Moscow’s influence and integrate more deeply with the West… This seems incompatible with Yerevan’s ambitions for greater Western alignment.”
• January 26, 2024 – The leading credit rating agency Fitch commented: “Armenia’s economy is significantly dependent on Russia for trade and energy, and Fitch does not anticipate meaningful diversification away from Russia in the near future.”
• March 16, 2024 – The American analytical publication Foreign Policy wrote: “Armenia’s dependence on Moscow is profound. Russia supplies most of its energy and remains its largest trading partner. Armenia is part of the Moscow-led EAEU… Yerevan’s search for new partners may be just an attempt to make Moscow jealous.”
• March 27, 2024 – The international political consulting firm Rasmussen Global reported: “Armenia remains dependent on Russia across multiple sectors: energy imports, food imports, and critical infrastructure.”
• July 11, 2024 – Carnegie observed: “Relations with Russia are becoming increasingly tense, but Armenia remains heavily dependent on Russia for energy and trade and is still its official military ally.”

All of the above proves that Armenia is not just an ally but essentially a vassal of Russia, without which the republic’s existence is inconceivable. Considering all these facts, Yerevan’s “reorientation” toward the West—openly confronting the Kremlin—is an insurmountable challenge for the small South Caucasus nation. A complete severance of Armenian-Russian relations would trigger a nationwide collapse, encompassing all critical state infrastructure.